At first glance it seems almost too good to be true - hundreds of Super Bowl proposition bets to choose from.
But bookmakers aren’t in the business of giving money away, even though sometimes it appears that way. These props are laced with juice and can be trickier than they look.
There are bettors, though, who feast on Super Bowl props. One such person is professional gambler Steve Fezzik. You can beat props two ways – by betting them as soon as they come out and by assiduously studying and researching them through matchup analysis.
Fezzik does both, but says the best values come in the beginning.
“You might find props that are off by 30 cents by doing your research? he said. “But if you do it right away you, can find props that are mispriced by 80 cents and are outright mistakes.
Bookmakers have gotten quite a bit sharper when it comes to making props, but it’s near-impossible to get every one of them right when putting out so many.
Fezzik said he found great value on opening numbers, both offshore and in Las Vegas. Perhaps the best one, he said, was discovering a prop at Caesars Palace where you could bet on when the first touchdown would occur.
He took 100-1 on the first touchdown coming during the 28th to 30th minute, which is right after the two-minute warning for the first half.
As sports betting popularity continues to rise, after recent changes on the US law, which allow individual states to decided wether or not to allow sports gambling, more and more people see potential on learning how to start a bookie business and run their own sportsbook.
“It doesn’t take a glorified math geek to tell you that is wrong? Fezzik said. “It should have been 15-1 not 100-1. It could have been 100-1 if it were the final two minutes of the game instead of the first half.
“I can’t believe they opened with that number.
Fezzik found another prop to his liking at Caesars.
“It was, would Seattle score 18, 19, 20 or 21 points, he said. “The ‘No’ was -$2.00. It should have been -$6.00. Clearly the Seahawks aren’t going to score 18 or 19.
At the Palms hotel, Fezzik bet the Steelers at -$1.30 to have the longer punt return than the Seahawks.
“That should have been -$1.80, Fezzik said. “The Steelers have had the longest punt return in nine straight games. Seattle was just 7-11 in longest punt returns. The Steelers clearly are superior when it comes to returning punts.
“That’s an example of one that is not close to a coin flip and got priced like it was a coin flip.
Sometimes a book can have the right number, but have the wrong price. That’s what Fezzik said happened on another prop at the Palm’s on how many touchdowns would be scored in the game.
“It opened 5 ½, which equates to 38 ½ points from touchdowns, Fezzik said. “If you figure 9-10 points from field goals it’s the right number. So the number should be pick.
But Fezzik said the over was -$1.60, while the under was +$1.40. So he took the plus on what figures to be a 50-50 type of wager with the game total at 47. It also puts him in a position for a good scalp if there’s a lot of line movement on the prop.
At Millennium sports book on the Internet, Fezzik said he found a prop on will there be more than one on-side kick attempted in the game.
“If you saw the Northwestern-UCLA college bowl game you might disagree, but it’s impossible to have two on-side kicks in a game, Fezzik said. “That should be 100-1. Instead you only had to lay $5 to make $1. That’s just free money.
These example aren’t necessarily meant to rip these sportsbooks - in fact they deserve kudos for putting out original props - but to point out how difficult it is to get both numbers and price right on so many in a rush situation.
The shame is in books charging extra-high vigorish and blatantly stealing other book’s props. It’s not beyond a careless bookmaker to actually copy a prop wrong. Fezzik said that was the case at the Aladdin hotel sportsbook.
There’s a prop on if the Seahawks will score before they punt twice. The Aladdin had the score first -$1.60 before the Seahawks punt once not twice.
“Whoever got there first probably bet it down to -$1.40 then $1.30 then $1.20 and then security escorted him out, Fezzik said.