The Discussion Everyone Needs to Have About Blockchain, Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Are we ready to face some realities about Blockchain Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies? Here are some facts we all need to face.

The World's Most Difficult Topic

It's really difficult to have calm and reasonable discussions around Blockchain, Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency today. Part of the reason for this is there so many divided opinions about what it all means, where it is currently, and where things are headed.

There is one camp that is 100% certain that this new technology and the companies, products, and services that have been created including cryptocurrencies, will completely disrupt the existing way that we conduct business and even live.

There's another camp that is 100% certain that this is all misguided enthusiasm towards something that will ultimately be proven to be virtually useless. They agree that Blockchain is interesting tech, but that it is been hyped up to the point of fantasy and overhyped in a way that it cannot possibly deliver.

There are Very Few People Willing to Have a reasonable Conversation

There seem to be very few people who operate the middle of these extremes. Meaning, those who believe that Blockchain technology will be a foundational piece of our modern tech and from it will come processes that will create products, services, and companies that will build market leaders. At the same time, they think that the current goings-on in the Blockchain and cryptocurrency industries Is more speculation than actuality, and that cryptocurrencies have certainly been overhyped as be all end all, when nothing of real consequence has actually been proven so far.

As you can probably tell, I am one of those people in the middle. I'm very excited about Blockchain technology, and the prospect of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I believe that we are definitely on to something and that in time we will find that things have changed and along with it many new players will be at the forefront of technology, social, financial, and perhaps even political systems.

Fiat Currencies are not Going Anywhere

I also believe that is not absolutely certain. One particular area I have serious doubts about is the conversations I hear about fiat currencies and crypto. I do not believe that cryptos as we know them today, will topple or replace Fiat currencies. That conversation is a very complicated one and what I constantly hear in terms of the understand of fiat currencies, how their value is created and maintained, how inflation is created, and how easy it is to replace these currencies, tells me that most people who are discussing these things, have no idea what they're talking about. They are simply caught up in the enthusiasm and storytelling that surrounds the cryptocurrency industry or they are crypto marketing people. Replacing fiat money requires a massive infrastructure and reputable governing bodies that are both responsive, and responsible for perhaps the most important parts of our lives, commerce. No cryptocurrency is prepared to do that I do not see how they could ever be really.

Also, nothing I have seen nor observed common or read about history leads me to believe that these institutions that currently regulate and manage currency can be replaced by the decentralized model as put forth by cryptocurrency companies. Let me be clear, I'm not saying that we will not be using cryptocurrencies in the future. There's no doubt that we will go to some form of electronic currency in the not-too-distant future and the type of inflation that most people discuss when speaking about inflation will have controls that are not currently in place. But the idea of worldwide currencies that have no governing body is not only revolutionary, it is unworkable currently. Let me be clear this does not mean that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies cannot exist and thrive.

What Does All of This Mean?

It means that we are at the beginning of something and what will happen is what always happens at the beginning of something new. False starts, mis-directions, bold claims and quick changes of directions. And very few of those who are here at the start will be around when things actually happen. To me it means that we need to exercise caution, to listen to opposing views and keep open minds, to scrutinize closely people who claim you have plans for the future, yet do not have a clear plan for how to create that future.

Some Important History

I was someone who was an active part of the last technology boom in the mid-1990s, I sat in many meetings with enthusiastic and vibrant managers who had a vision of a new and exciting future. They were able to catch the imagination of both the existing financial players as well as the public.

For the first time in my life time I saw companies with no track record come into business and acquire massive valuations. When they were questioned about their business fundamentals, the response usually was that the former business fundamentals no longer applied and that these new companies operated differently and should be evaluated differently. Their discussion was so compelling, that they were able to raise hundreds of billions of dollars to support their ideas. It seemed as if there was a real revolution happening, and those who were part of it would rewrite history and form the foundation for the next generation of technology companies.

What came out of that era was many companies that today are our technology giants. They include Cisco Systems, ebay, and Amazon. We also saw major resurgences in companies like Samsung, IBM and Apple, who used new tech to turn themselves around. We also saw many other companies that merged or were purchased by technology giants and their technology become part of products and services we all use today.

But what we saw more often were companies that sounded great on paper but failed horribly in execution. In spite of their great sounding notions and enthusiastic CEOs, their businesses never really had a chance. In other words the tech industry of the 90’s followed the same business truth as every other industry in every other time: There will be very few that emerge as disruptors, there are some that will become big businesses, there are a few that will struggle along for a while and survive, and the vast majority would go down in flames. The separator of all of these businesses, wasn't particularly the idea the company had, it was the execution of that idea and the timing of that idea.

Stay Excited and Learn About How Successful Businesses are Built

I bring these remarks up to say that the advice I give to everyone who is excited about cryptocurrency and about Blockchain is to keep that excitement, and let your enthusiasm take you also to gain a deep understanding of business fundamentals, and a knowledge of why companies become successful and why those very few special companies are able to disrupt an Industry.

My best advice to you is to get and stay informed.

These are my thoughts and I would love to hear yours. If this is an interesting topic for you, please comment below and let's begin a discussion and get others involved.

Thanks as always for your time.