Crypto Newsletter #2 -BTC, LTC, ETH, DASH, SUB, VEN and PAY

Overall market perception: The bears have come out of hibernation for the time being as the market begins to slide to the downside, I believe largely due to the continued decline in Bitcoin while it searches for its final low. During such volatile times the best course of action is to step aside and let the market move in the direction it is heading, in this case, down.

That being said, this down market does provide several opportunities, notably the ability to sort the wheat from the chaff, keep an eye out on coins which are bucking the trend, or are showing relative signs of strength, jot those names down and keep an eye on them, as they may prove to be stronger instruments to move to, the next time the market takes a tumble.

Today we will look at BTC, LTC, ETH, DASH, SUB, VEN and PAY.

*Keep in mind that DASH, SUB, VEN and PAY can only be obtained on more sophisticated exchanges, e.g. Bittrex or Binance*

BTC:

Short story – My prior observation that the price would begin to settle around the 12,000-9000 USD level proved to be reasonably accurate, I would look to enter long positions between 11,000-9000 USD.

Long story – It would not surprise me to see another retest of the lows at around 9000 USD that being said entering at the current prices around 10,000-11,000 USD is still quite a solid choice, particularly if you are looking to build a long position (longer term holding). If we fail to hold the prior low of 9000 USD, then I see us falling to 8000 USD, which is a must hold area of support, keep this in mind if you are entering a position. On the flipside, if we see a rally to above 13,000 USD then this would be a very bullish outcome (albeit I do not see this happening anytime soon, barring any major announcements).

LTC:

Short story – Similar to BTC, prior observation was reasonably accurate, as the price entered the stated ‘buy zone.’ Consider entering a position, but be aware that if the current support fails, we will most likely fall to either around 135 USD or 100 USD, should the price fall to these levels, barring any catastrophic news, I would STRONGLY suggest a buy.

Long story – Litecoin is still in a strong downtrend (as many will be at the moment), and is looking for a place to consolidate and digest the previous moves. If you are more conservative, look for a close above the stated trend line before entering, if you are more comfortable with risk, then looking to pick some up at these levels is not out of the question, but as stated earlier, be aware that a failure to hold support would most likely signal a move lower. One issue I have with Litecoin at the moment is the lack of volume, which signals (to me) that there is still more to sell, as we have yet to see the ‘capitulation volume’ associated with a bottoming. That being said, Litecoin is still a very attractive buy, particularly for those looking to build a long position.

ETH:

Short story – Ethereum has also entered a downtrend (after a very nice run last month, hope you listened to my observations) and attempting to put in a base, I would look for the price to settle around the 860 USD mark, that being said, look out for a break outside of the stated downtrend, as this could signal a bottom.

Long story - If you listened to my interpretation in last month’s newsletter and purchased Ethereum, you would have done quite well, unlike last month, Ethereum does not look overly strong this month (however, it is still the strongest of the ‘big 3’ in my opinion). We have fallen below the mid point of the Bollinger bands, which would indicate that we may either float around the mid point before regaining stability, or we may fall lower (which is where my money is) to the bottom of the band at around 900 USD. We are currently riding the 30 EMA, should this fail, we will most likely see a fall to the 50 EMA (currently situated around the 950 USD mark). My recommendation for Ethereum is a watch and wait approach, either wait for a fall and buy on the expectation of a bounce, or wait for a confirmed break of the downtrend, it all depends on your risk tolerance.

DASH:

Short story – Wait, while DASH posed some nice trading opportunities 20-25% etc, it has entered quite a steep downtrend, with the three EMAs beginning to cross (a sign of a prolonged move down). If you are going to enter, keep stops very tight and don’t stay in for too long, for more risky individuals you may try a trade looking for a return to the 10 EMA (roughly at around 750 USD, or around 15%). But this is quite risky.

Long story – DASH is posing a good long-term buy, but it may be better to wait for a break of the downtrend before entering a position, the price has strayed quite far from the 10 EMA, which would indicate a bounce in the near term. I would think that should the outlined support fail (the purple circle) then it would not be out of the question for the price to fall to around the 560 USD mark (which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement level). If it were to fall to these levels, then it would be a very good buying opportunity, barring any catastrophic news.

SUB:

Short story – Watch and wait, look for a break of the downtrend for a potential entry, but be aware that the 10 EMA has crossed the 30 EMA, should the 10 EMA fail to bounce above of the 50 EMA, then I would avoid until you see clear confirmation of a bottom, even then be wary, as SUB is a relatively small market cap coin, which makes it more prone to varied price swings.

Long story – SUB is one I am personally watching to give an entry signal, given what I said regarding the 10, 30 and 50 EMAs, I am cautiously watching this one. On the positives, the MACD is looking healthy and the Bollinger bands are looking as they are approaching an ‘oversold’ status as well, volume wise SUB is looking reasonable, but we are yet to see any major ‘capitulation volume.’

VEN:

Short story – VEN is a logistics and supply chain (amongst other uses) based crypto; VEN is currently experiencing a pullback after an insane run (in excess of 2000% in just over a month), so a buy is out of the question for the time being, at least until we have seen pullback of at least 50% in my opinion.

Long story – VEN is another one I am watching and waiting for a point to re-enter, as I sold my VEN holdings around the top of the move (based on an EMA/ price divergence). I would watch for signs of bottoming around the outlined levels (the purple lines) before I re-enter.

But keep in mind the VEN, SUB and PAY charts I am showing you, are priced against Bitcoin, which means that should Bitcoin run, these coins will lose Bitcoin value, if you are purely in this to trade for fiat money (AUD or USD for example) then this does not matter so much, but you will most likely lose your Bitcoin value.

PAY:

Short story – This is a recommendation based on fundamentals, more so than technical Tenx (the company who issued PAY) is similar to MasterCard, for crypto, it allows uses to spend their crypto currencies anywhere these cards are accepted, the company is also in talks to acquire their own banking license to issue their own cards, free from a reliance on third parties, slated for end of Q2. I am a big supporter of Tenx, both for their transparency and the product they are creating.

Long story –On the technical side of things, the chart looks rather bleak, you can see from the image below that the price action is very close to the bottom end of the Bollinger band, which may indicate that we are approaching a bounce (at least in the near term), you may also notice that the price action is attempting to flatten out a bit more, also a promising sign.

Other than that, the rest of the chart looks quite weak, with lots of resistance to overcome to get back to prior highs, if you are tempted to enter a position in PAY, then you are most likely an investor, not a trader, as the chart outlook is more inclined to say ‘value buy for 1-3yrs down the line’ then a ‘buy me and flip me in an afternoon.’