Long-term market forecast based on past technology innovations

Today I would like to give you a small assessment of the adaptation of the blockchain technology and the cryptocurrencies. The following figure shows the life cycle of technology adaptations and provides information on which phase and which user masses adopt the respective technology.

So far, neither Facebook, Netflix, Amazon nor Google have integrated the Bitcoin into their highly frequented infrastructures. For the mainstream user, there is still no comprehensive application possibility of the digital currency.

For this reason, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, although they have a market capitalization of over 100 billion US dollars, are currently still in the advanced range of initial adaptation. With the implementation in the mainstream and increasing the benefit for average users, the adaptation of digital currencies will progress faster.

This statement is based on the graph below, which excludes the dissemination and adaptation of past technological innovations in American households from 1900 to 2005.

The chart shows that the spread of new technologies has accelerated in recent years. It can be assumed that this is a continuing trend and those technological innovations will spread even faster in the future, which in turn can lead to the conclusion that the adaptation of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrencies based on it will also be affected by this accelerated spread.

A brief comparison will also be made. One of Amazon's largest online retailers, a company that has not yet adapted payment with Bitcoin, will have a market value of USD 476 billion in 2017.

Annual global sales volume in 2016 was $135.99 billion and has grown steadily over the past 13 years. The entire cryptocurrency market thus has a capitalization equivalent to about a quarter of Amazon's enterprise value.

This comparison is intended to support the thesis of classification in early technology adaptation and at the same time serve as an assessment for the future development of the market, insofar as the adaptation of digital currencies is progressing as previously elaborated.

This is part of a somewhat older seminar paper. However, I would still see the assessment in the field of early adopters and so it is topical. It may help some people to recognize the development potential that still exists in the market.

#innovations #crypto #cryptocurrency #technology #adoption