Why We Should Be (Cautiously) Concerned About The Corona Virus
Why We Should Be (Cautiously) Concerned About The Corona Virus
Since my last post, I shared more direct concerns with the nature of the 'silencing' of sufferers of the virus, and talked more about geopolitics as well as going into the science of infection.
This post will be an update on the situation, and my honest look at the level of concern people should have.
Housekeeping
As a slight aside, I must, in an attempt to be completely honest and open, acknowledge the flaw in one of my source (source 1) from last time I talked about this issue. It has since been retracted, and is undergoing review, facing heavy critique due to potential problems with their methods of determining the structure of the virus, similarities with HIV proteins, etc. That's the risk with using non-peer reviewed sources, and I'll strive to do better than that in the future. It's not my goal to mislead you, the reader.
I must also acknowledge some of my statements as of late have been conspiratorial. I admit, these were occasions I got carried away. I will not apologise, but I will acknowledged in both instances I jumped the shark.
Statistics
The current number of people infected is upward of 40,000. The fatality rate of the disease is 2-4%. This is significantly higher than the fatality rate of the flu, which has a fatality rate of 0.095%. (Source 1)
Now, it's easy to ignore the fact that there are many more people listed as recovered than those who have died; as of writing 910 people have died, versus 3,548 people who are listed as "recovered" which is something I will somewhat dispute, because the variables are completely unknown, and too many assumptions are being made about the incubation period of the virus, as well as the risk of the virus becoming 'dormant' meaning that these individuals who have been removed from quarantine are still possibly a risk to people.
Again, this is speculation, but there is considerable concern from the scientific community that the virus could have outbreaks that are seasonal, which could lead to far more deaths and cases of re-infection. The truth is, we don't know, but that isn't the same thing as saying we "don't know anything" because that would be a lie.
We do know things about the virus, what we don't know ultimately is its over all infectiousness, i.e. when the scale of the infections has reduced, if it reduces.
Vaccine
Scientists are predicting that it's going to take another year or even longer to produce the vaccine, at which point the virus could re-emerge with a vengeance. (Source 3)
Analysis + Speculation
All of that said, it really is suspicious to me that the Chinese government is hiding information, infection statistics etc. It's shady as hell that they're creating quarantine zones so incredibly large that the possibility of the virus spreading even to less-infected people is extremely high.
These places, the new hospitals, are hotbeds of infection, and they pose a serious risk to everyone there. You could turn up with few symptoms, and by the time you leave (if you leave) you'll definitely be a confirmed sufferer of the disease due to the shier volume of infected there.
No vaccine plus suspected "patients" aka prisoners being arrested and taken to these places, yeah no, the entire thing screams of suspicious. Especially when you realise there will be no vaccine for years to come, so this is just going to get worse, at least for China.
Conclusion
Should you be scared? Yes and no. Be cautiously suspicious, and exercise restraint. Don't run and hide because you see a Chinese person sneeze. Get yourself some water, some high energy foods and some nutritious food. Clean all food before consuming it, within reason.
Common sense stuff but you'd be surprised (maybe not so much) by the number of people who take no precautions and get seriously sick. Ignore those who say this is nothing. It's not nothing. Ignore those who say this is the end of our civilisation. It's not.
It is, if I were to rank it, an amber alert situation right now. Keep a level head.
Thanks for reading.
Sources
Source 1: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v2
Source 2: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-10000-across-us-as-world-frets-over-coronavirus.html
Source 3: https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-vaccine-could-take-years-timeline-and-cost-2020-2?r=US&IR=T