Why the Left has Won

In 2016 a total of 137,125,484 (1) votes were cast in the national election for president.  Donald Trump didn't get the majority of those votes.  He won the electoral college by getting the "right" votes in the battle ground states.  My title, "why the left has won" is based on several assumptions.  I'd ask anyone to find fault in those assumptions:

First the total number of votes is 137 million plus.   There were 200 million plus registered voters in 2016.   137 million into 200 (2) million suggests that turn out was a dismal 68.5%.   There are reports of lower turn out, and what I gathered from those were the dismissal of 3rd party candidate votes (libertarian and green party mostly).   So what is the assumption?  The mail in ballot, demands of the left, will increase voter turn out.  This assumption is based on the lefts ability to harvest ballots.  The term harvest is not a criminal act.  California has nearly perfected it.   The results of this election will mirror California's because the left has the "volunteers" to go out and get ballots.  

Why does the increased turn out insure the left has won?  Penn State University notes that voter turn out is even lower when you take into account voter registration does not include all eligible voters.   Many states are removing the need to register ahead of time - you can now walk into a polling place the day of the election and register and vote.  That would help the left more if not for Covid.   With the vote depending on the mail it will be focused on registered voters.   Its likely 63 million registered voters who didn't vote in 2016 will be given the "mail in option" in 2020.   And they'll have "volunteers" at their doors asking for their ballots.   This will increase the turn out, and the vast majority of those 63 million who didn't vote - are democrats.   Just 37% of registered voters identify as Republican while 44% register as democrats.  This number is down according to unreliable media outlets, and finding the current numbers is hard.   If accurate it means the increased turn out will favor the democrats.  

Republicans have traditionally out voted democrats in the form of turn out - this statement is my opinion.  I believe it to be true and ask anyone with contrary information to better inform me.   If 70% of Republicans turned out and 60% democrats (hypothetical) then vote by mail, harvested ballots, and increased overall turn out is going to "explode" the variation of votes to democrats.   Democrats are not going to vote for Trump.   

If vote by mail increases turn out just 5% it would be about 6 million more votes.  Since the effort is lead by democrats it is safe to assume 70% of those ballots will be democrats.  30% would then be republican.   That is a 4.2 to 1.8 million vote difference or 2.4 million more democratic votes in the presidential election.   2.4 million in which 90% or more will be for Biden over Trump.   2.4 million with a focus on battle ground states.   Trump won the needed battle ground states by less than 400,000 votes in 2016.   

(1) https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php
(2) https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993