The Calculus of Nikki Haley
Look, it's February of 2023. There are eleven months to a year before anyone actually starts voting for the next Presidential election so my 'give a damn' about 2024 is still fairly low. But this week I have been absolutely fascinated by the reaction to former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley throwing her hat into the Presidential ring.
Everyone (with vanishingly few exceptions) has absolutely shit all over the idea.
I should note at the outset: I'm not a Republican. Despite the fact that I have to change my voter registration back to Independent, I'm not really a Democrat either. Am I likely to vote for too many Republicans in 2024? No, I'm not very likely. What they're doing to my state (Iowa) is either wildly irresponsible (likely) or just plain irritating (definitely) and I see no reason to reward a party that's doubled down on batshit lunacy with my vote. (A lot can happen in a year, but I'm just saying. Right now, doesn't seem that likely.)
However, taking a step back and looking at a Haley candidacy, I honestly don't get all the hate for the idea.
Don't get me wrong: she's a certifiable long shot to make it through a GOP primary. And, if the first primaries were say, in June of this year rather than February of next year, she would have no chance. We're talking completely dead on arrival. But, the first primaries don't get underway for another year or so, and- here's the thing that nobody seems to acknowledge so far: she's got a lane.
There is absolutely a lane for a normie Republican in the race. It's why Chris Sununu is making noise about getting in. It's why Larry Hogan is sending up test balloons. It's why people have mentioned Glen Youngkin in Virginia as a possibility as well. (I'm just guessing here: but it's also probably why South Carolina Senator Tim Scott hasn't said much about her candidacy either.) How viable this lane is, we don't yet know. How big this lane is, we don't yet know. But it does exist.
I saw somebody compare her to Tim Pawlenty, which I don't think is a fair comparison at all- at least not yet. Pawlenty's problem was a problem that a lot of other Republican candidates had and that was being overly deferential to St. Regean's great commandment of 'thou shalt not speak of ill of thy fellow Republicans.' He wasn't willing to throw an elbow or a punch or stick a knife if necessary and while I don't think a Presidential candidate should be all about the primary brawling, voters respond to candidates who are willing to do that. It may have ultimately benefited Trump in the end, but Chris Christie absolutely knifed (just straight-shanked his ass) Marco Rubio on national television and that was the end of Rubio.
If Haley can throw elbows or stick knives in where necessary and do so effectively, I think she'll escape the Pawlenty comparison. But, I also think that getting in the mud is something she's going to avoid unless absolutely necessary.
Announcement videos rarely tell you a lot about a candidate, but Haley's is telling. She doesn't mention the word 'woke' once. She doesn't mention the word 'Trump' once. She does, however, point out that Republicans have lost the popular vote in 7 out of the last 8 Presidential elections which is really telling because ultimately, I think that's her thesis and it's bringing out an understated and underrated problem the Republican Party desperately needs to solve. They can't keep relying on the Electoral College for wins. It's going to bite them in the ass and- more importantly- if you can win the popular vote, usually the Electoral College doesn't matter all that much.
(Plus, if you want to see the Electoral College gone, a Republican who wins the popular, but loses the Electoral is exactly the outcome you should be rooting for because it's the only way they're going to line up against it- when they start losing because of it instead of winning.)
Haley does have some problems to overcome. She's got a long way to go and she needs to impress people quickly to gain money and traction to get in the race. 'Not putting up with bullies' is a great line, but it sort of loses its luster considering who she worked for when she was UN Ambassador.
I think the Left isn't doing itself any favors by attacking her over the name thing. They look racist as fuck doing it and that can only benefit her. Plus, it's not actually true. Nikki is, in fact, her middle name and she's gone by it well before she ever got into politics. But even if it was true, it's still a shit argument because immigrants from non-white places do that shit all the time (and had this been true, that's the conversation this should be sparking, not the usual 'durr durr durrrrrrrr Republican bad' swill that we're currently seeing) and I personally, don't think they should (unless they want to, of course.). If white people can't learn how to pronounce your name, that's a white people's problem, not yours. As a white person, please don't feel the need to cater to my white ass on that issue. I'm an adult, I can learn how to pronounce Nimrata correctly if I have to.
But, if I'm guessing, here's the calculus of Nikki Haley: Trump is either indicted or spends the next year in a bare-knuckle brawl with Ron DeSantis that makes them both look bad and turns the voters off. If they destroy each other, who is left standing?
Now, if the culture war bullshit remains as potent an issue for the GOP as it is right now, I don't know if that calculus holds up. But if the landscape shifts a bit over the next year and prices remain high and people are worried about how they're going to put food on the table I think that also could shift things towards Haley.
Everyone who has spent the last few days absolutely shitting all over this idea could wind up being 100% correct. She might flame out. She might shoot herself in the foot and be consigned to a Vice Presidential shortlist. But right now, I don't see it. She's a viable candidate. She's a long shot to make it through a primary, but if things break her way (say 2nd or 3rd place in Iowa, maybe winning New Hampshire and South Carolina- which is a must-win for her) then you never know. And in a general election, you would be fools to count her out. People might be getting tired of crazy.
That notion alone is enough to make Nikki Haley viable.