No One Is Going Anywhere, So What Do You Do?

This was not the column I was planning on writing this week and I almost didn’t. With so many opinions floating around about the latest painful chapter in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, did I need to add mine to the general morass? Would anything worthwhile come from it? Would it make a difference or change anyone’s mind? The answer to all of those questions is undoubtedly some variation on ‘probably not’, but I’m going to write this anyway. Everyone else is, so why not me?

Before this weekend, my general thought was that the Palestinian Question was one that Israel was going to have to answer one way or another. It’s pretty damn obvious that the Arab countries are going to keep Palestinians penned up in refugee camps rather than integrate them into their respective societies. (Yes, you can argue: Why should they? I wouldn’t be immune to that argument, but it’s been 75 years. Probably time to try something different- if you can.) By now, it should be clear to all concerned that no one is going anywhere: the Jews aren’t going to march themselves into the sea and the Palestinians aren’t going to get together and collectively decide to move to Schenectady. No one is going anywhere, so what do you do?

I don’t know any Israeli Arabs to ask them, but I would imagine that Israel’s insistence on being a Jewish State (for obvious reasons) makes for a weird existence sometimes. How much room is there really for you at the national table when the state itself proclaims that it’s not for you? Israel may well offer the Palestinians some sort of integration into Israel proper, but I doubt they’re going to warm to the idea. So integrating them- even if the Israeli Government wanted to and had the political muscle or will to do so, neither of which I think they have at the moment- isn’t something that I think is a viable option.

Probably the most interesting take I’ve seen out there calls for a three-state solution that recognizes the independence of Gaza and The West Bank as separate nations— which is a solution that correctly notes that non-contiguous states are not that successful anyway and acknowledges the political reality on the ground. (It’s actually not that bad of an idea– I think the biggest sticking point would be relocating settlements in the West Bank- which from a long-term security point of view, might well be an idea Israel might consider, but the Palestinians won’t be down with it if it means giving up East Jerusalem. Now, I know it’s trite and it’s The West Wing, but the show floats the notion of making the entirety of East Jerusalem an embassy, which doesn’t seem like the stupidest idea in the world to me.) 

The problem is that I don’t see how you get there- even before this weekend. The most objectionable thing the Israelis have done so far is telling people in Gaza to leave, because they’re coming, to which the obvious reply is: okay, so where are two million Palestinians going to go, exactly? They’re trapped there and not all of them may be fans of Hamas, but Israel has had the place under a land, sea, and air blockade and has, to the best of my knowledge, made no serious concessions or listed conditions under which they will allow trade and prosperity to flow into Gaza. Recognizing Gaza as an independent nation would more or less require them to do that and I don’t think they’re going to hip to that idea.

No one is going anywhere. If the Israelis forcibly expel every Palestinian in the West Bank and Gaza to Jordan and Egypt, at best, I think relations would become decidedly frosty, at worst, it would openly destabilize both countries and the work of normalization and peace treaties of the past few decades could potentially be at risk. Israel doesn’t want to put Egypt or Jordan back on the board when they’ve got Iran and Syria to think about as well. Compromising the normalization of the past five decades doesn’t ensure Israel’s long-term security. 

After this weekend, I think the onus of resolving this conflict has now passed from one side to both of them. You can twist yourself into a pretzel knot trying to explain to me how murdering three hundred people at a Rave For Peace is actually fighting Israeli oppression. You can try and persuade me that somehow hostage-taking is actually fighting the Israeli occupation. You can make all the comparisons with Northern Ireland that you want– but you know what the IRA didn’t do? They didn’t murder three hundred British citizens at a Rave. They didn’t launch a massive cross-border raid into Northern Ireland and walk away with hundreds of hostages. They didn’t pitch thousands of rockets across the Irish Sea into London either.

Had they done any of that, Northern Ireland wouldn’t be at peace today. You know what they did do? They put their weapons beyond use. They signed up to be part of a peace process. They put the needs of their people ahead of their own political agenda and in the end, it might be a longer game than the Palestinians want to play after eighty years, but it wouldn’t surprise me all that much if I see a united Ireland in my lifetime. 

I see no such concern from any of the Palestinian factions for the future of their people. Part of that isn’t on them: it’s probably hard to imagine a future when you’ve been subjected to the indignities and oppression of a decades-long occupation. But this is a massive escalation on the part of Hamas and I don’t think they’ve realized what it’s going to cost them yet. It’s easy to play on sympathy in the West when we see footage of Palestinian youths throwing rocks at IDF tanks. The murder and rape of innocent people attending a rave? Not so much. There are already people trying to excuse this and brush this off, but the more footage is released, the more they will beclown themselves in support of terrorism, rape, and murder.

For decades now, armed resistance and multiple Intifadas have won the Palestinians nothing. Until everybody in this conflict acknowledges that neither side is going anywhere, nothing will change and the cycle of violence will continue.