War With China Inevitable
** Draft from 2017 When I Was Jamming Speed, but It was Prescribed! A LOT has Changed Since Then, But This Will Give You a Bit of My Flavor **
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#Conflict with #China Inevitable
By @JodyRoundhouse
March 2017
Part of a series: America's Next Fight
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He who controls the Pacific Ocean controls half the world. The one who controls the periphery of their empire never has to fight at home.
#America is quickly careening downhill and its 70+ year Pacific dominance is coming to an end. Since the end of WWII, America has been the indisputable hegemon of the Pacific, but now that strategic standing is being challenged and uprooted quickly by China. [1][2][3][4]
Again, whoever controls the Pacific Ocean controls half the world.
Tensions in the South China Sea (referenced hereafter as "SCS") have been boiling for years under former President Obama, and things with China are coming to a head. Notorious for testing new American presidents, Trump and Beijing have already begun the dance. [5]
At the time of this writing, Trump has sent an aircraft carrier battle group through the SCS, which China claims sovereignty over, directly challenging an increasingly rattled and confused Beijing. This has received very little media coverage. [6]
So what's the big deal? Well, for years now China has been building fake islands on top of what are essentially reefs and sandbars in the SCS. It has since militarized these islands, and is claiming them and the entirety of the SCS as sovereign Chinese territory, rather than its remaining international waters as it is now. [6]
China has installed military-length airstrips, has attack aircraft on-site, and has positioned anti-air and missile-to-ship capabilities on the larger islands. It appears China is sending the message that it will use force to backup its claim over the SCS. The U.S. has hinted that it will return in kind. [6][7]
The decisions made over the next four years will determine the course of global history. Generations will be directly affected, and a generation may die in the process. [4] What's happening today looks a lot like 1930s Europe. Just as Nazi Germany used its diplomatic prowess and military to manipulate and bully weak leaders into obtaining greater and greater territory without outright war, China is seizing a piece of international territory 1.5 million square miles in size without being stopped for eight years now. It's claiming territory that stretches more than 750 miles from China's mainland. One-third of the world's trade, worth $5.3 trillion, moves through the SCS annually, and the area is believed to be rich in oil and gas deposits. [7][8][9][10][11][12]
Unlike the more passive approach that Obama took toward China's island-building, President Trump and his administration have already struck an aggressive stance toward America's adversaries and "frenemies." America's top diplomat, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, said during his confirmation hearings: “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed.” Defense Secretary Jim "Mad Dog" Mattis added his two cents: "Freedom of navigation is absolute, and whether it be commercial shipping or our U.S. Navy, we will practice in international waters and transit international waters as appropriate." [6][7]
The implication these men seem to be making is that things have fundamentally changed, and the U.S. is no longer going to tolerate the convenient "accidents" that seem to happen at the best of times (for China), have its naval ships "buzzed" by Russian fighter jets, its naval ships swarmed by Iranian fast-boat attack craft, continual threats of nuclear annihilation by North Korea, etc. The underlying message from the Trump administration seems to be clear: America is prepared to use force to get what it wants. But so far, at the cusp of the two-month mark of his presidency, Trump has yet to overtly act out, other than the "botched" raid in Yemen. [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]
This bipolar-esque reversal on U.S. foreign policy in the Western Pacific has left Beijing speechless with the ball in its court. China is still fuming over Trump's reception of a call from Taiwanese President Tsi Ing-wen congratulating him on his presidential victory. It's been 38 years since an American president has had official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. [21][22][23]
Using the supercarrier USS Carl Vinson to lead the strike group is highly symbolic. With a crew exceeding 6,000 and a complement of 90 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters (enough to destroy any city many times over), the mere presence of one of these ships near your coast spells trouble. The sheer magnitude of combined power carried by the Vinson and its supporting escort is mind-boggling, and is the strongest warning short of war an American president can make. Now the waiting game sets in, and any day something big can happen. Trump's failure to do anything about the new round of ballistic-missile testing by Iran and North Korea is disconcerting. But hopefully his eclectic cabinet, especially Mattis and others with military backgrounds, will advise correctly and Trump will heed as he should. [24][25][26]
A direct challenge of China of this caliber hasn't been seen for 21 years, since President Clinton parked two aircraft carrier battle groups off the Chinese coast during the Taiwan Strait Crisis in the mid-90's. Trump's show of intimidating show of force has received little media attention, and yet the risk of a sudden flash war is frighteningly real. Even a Chinese army official acknowledged that the threat of war between the two countries is rising. [27][28]
Any war with China would break out suddenly and be extraordinarily fast-paced. It will be mostly an air/naval war, but the U.S. would be fighting in China's backyard, opening up the country's infrastructure to attack. Both sides would take many losses, but so long as the American people and the White House have the will to win, we would win.
The winner of this will control the Pacific.
Citations:
1) http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/16/us-military-dominance-pacific-decline-says-top-adm/
A) Top U.S. Admiral says U.S. is losing dominance of Pacific to China.
2) http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33440287
A) "Polls regularly show that Americans recognize that their country's international standing has waned."
B2) World has become disordered due to American inaction.
C) "Over the course of this century Washington has lost its fear factor."
D) Loss of strategic footing.
E) Exploits of foreign powers around the world.
3) http://www.dailywire.com/news/12596/good-riddance-obamas-7-worst-foreign-policy-michael-qazvini
A) Obama's massive foreign policy blunders.
B) "Obama dismissed the advice of military brass to pursue an international affairs agenda based on appeasement. He surrounded himself with yes-men."
C) America "no longer respected" by the rest of the world because of Obama's policies.
D) Specifics the article talks about: Red-line against Syria then not following through; the Iran nuclear deal; retreating from the Middle East, creating vacuum for rise of ISIS; neglecting Afghanistan even with Taliban resurgence; abandoning South Sudan and witnessing ethnic cleansing; hurting America's relationship with Israel.
4) https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2008-01-01/rise-china-and-future-west
A) Provides general overview of the big picture of the American/Chinese issue as it applies to the 21st century.
5) http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/27/is-trump-ready-for-chinas-inevitable-test-of-american-power/
A) "In recent years, China has carefully tested and evaluated each new American president."
B) Previous and continued aggressions committed against America by China, especially via presidential testing.
C) China has been testing America for a very long time.
D) China's increasingly aggressive posture and actions over the years.
E) Chinese harassment of its neighbor's naval assets and territorial waters.
F) "There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Trump and his policies, making him a likely target for persistent probing early on in his first term. 'How he responds will reverberate across the region and around the world,' said Dr. Andrew Erickson, ... a leading expert on China, to The Daily Caller News Foundation."
G) Trump's decisions altering the course of 21st century, especially vis-a-vis China.
6) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/ /2017/02/19/us-deploys-carrier-contentious-south-china-sea/98126274/
A) America sends aircraft carrier battle group "strike group" into South China Sea. (USS Carl Vinson is name of carrier)
B) South China Sea is rich in resources.
C) China claims sovereignty over SCS.
D) China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said “China has indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and their adjacent waters,” he said. “China respects and upholds the freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea which countries enjoy under international law, but firmly opposes any country's attempt to undermine China's sovereignty and security in the name of the freedom of navigation and overflight”
He added that China urged the U.S. to “refrain from challenging China’s sovereignty and security” in the sea.
E) "Some 30% of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea each year, worth $5.3 trillion, according to a 2015 Department of Defense report. The waters are also key fishing resources and are rich in oil and natural gas reserves."
F) "In July 2016, an international tribunal at The Hague issued a sweeping condemnation of China’s claims and conduct in the disputed waters. China said it did not recognize the ruling."
G) Since 2013, China has been creating artificial islands on all seven of the islets and reefs it claims in the Spratly Islands chain, equipping many with military-grade airfields and weapons systems.
H) "The United States has taken no position on the territorial claims but has conducted periodic freedom of navigation operations near the Chinese holdings, which have triggered heated warnings from Beijing. In July of last year, a senior Chinese admiral said such operations could end 'in disaster.'”
I) Mentions recent provocative military encounters with China.
J) "Ahead of its deployment to the South China Sea, the USS Carl Vinson and other ships and aircraft from the strike group conducted training off of Hawaii and Guam." - Ominous
...
"The training completed over the past few weeks has really brought the team together and improved our effectiveness and readiness as a strike group," Rear Adm. James Kilby, commander of the strike group, said in a statement. "We are looking forward to demonstrating those capabilities while building upon existing strong relationships with our allies, partners and friends in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region." - Ominous
K) The deployment comes as the new Trump administration continues to define its policies and priorities towards the South China Sea. During his confirmation hearings in January, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took a hard line on Beijing’s activities in the area, telling the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed.” - Threat of war by America's top diplomat against China over "islands" in South China Sea.
L) In a visit to Tokyo in early February, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis criticized China for its assertiveness in the South China Sea, saying it had 'shredded the trust of nations in the region.'"
M) "Mattis stressed that the U.S. would continue with its policy of freedom of navigation operations. 'Freedom of navigation is absolute, and whether it be commercial shipping or our U.S. Navy, we will practice in international waters and transit international waters as appropriate,' he said."
7) http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/tillerson-trump-and-the-south-china-sea/
A) ** Tilleron won't let China near islands, etc. - Implications of war **
B) An international tribunal ruled that China’s artificial islands should only be considered rocks or low-tide elevations under the Law of the Sea, and thus that China is not entitled to the territorial waters that it claims.
C) Warnings of danger about Secretary of State Rex Tillerson from analysts.
D) International tribunal.
E) FROM ARTICLE: "The main islands that are under discussion are the Spratly Islands, which are claimed by several other countries ..."
8) https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-china-sea-ruling-increases-uncertainty-for-shipping-trade-1468487095
1) $5.3 trillion of goods move through the South China Sea annually. $1.2 trillion of that is from U.S. trading.
2) International tribunal that ruled against China's claims to the South China Sea.
3) China's fake island building.
4) Freedom of navigation used against China by U.S.
5) Good overall source for everything going on right now regarding China.
9) http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/germany-annexes-austria
10) http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/timeline/ww2time.htm
1) Germany violating international treaties, Treaty of Versailles, by introducing military conscription.
2) 1936: German troops occupy the Rhineland.
3) 1938: Appeasement. British Prime Minister Chamberlain appeases Hitler at Munich.
4) 1938: German troops occupy the Sudetenland; Czech government resigns.
5) 1939: Nazis take Czechoslovakia.
11) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea
A) SCS is 1,400,000 sq miles large.
B) "The area's importance largely results from one-third of the world's shipping sailing through its waters and that it is believed to hold huge oil and gas reserves beneath its seabed."
12) https://www.google.com/maps/place/South+China+Sea/@12.6951562,110.3435309,5.25z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x313775683af505c5:0x36e21e8540cb93d4!8m2!3d15.488092!4d114.404754
A) * Map of South China Sea *
13) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/12/17/china-returns-us-drone-after-explaining-seizure/95555610/
A) "China’s Defense Ministry says it will return the U.S. Navy underwater drone it captured operating in international waters in the South China Sea"
B) Trump tweet at the time: "China steals United States Navy research drone in international waters - rips it out of water and takes it to China in unprecedented act." - In December, before inauguration.
C) Trump "stirred anger in Beijing after a 10-minute phone call with Taiwan President Tsi Ing-wen. It was the first by a U.S. president or president-elect since President Jimmy Carter acknowledged in 1979 China's position that Taiwan is part of 'One China.'”
D) China also accused the U.S. of deploying “ships in China’s presence to conduct reconnaissance and military surveying. China is resolutely opposed to this and requests the U.S. stop such activities.” - Reader, don't think we're necessarily the "good guys." We've been making big moves on China for decades, and have already fought one unresolved war in Korea. We're systematically encircling them just as we did to the USSR during the cold war. [CITE]
E) The drone seizure incident happened off the coast of the Philippines.
F) "The USNS Bowditch is the vessel that launched and tried to retrieve the drone. It is an oceanographic ship that is operated by the Military Sealift Command manned by a civilian crew ... These types of drones, called gliders, typically collect unclassified data, such as water temperatures and salinity levels."
G) Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook, from article: "According to Cook, the drone is not armed and is used for gathering weather and temperature data. The incident occurred Thursday."
H) "The Bowditch was about to recover the glider when a Chinese Dalang III class Chinese warship approached within 500 yards of the Bowditch, launched a small vessel and snatched the drone out of the water, the Pentagon said."
I) The Bowditch contacted the Chinese vessel by radio and demanded the return of the glider. The Chinese ship acknowledged the radio transmission but ignored the request to return it, the Pentagon said.
J) The U.S. government had issued a démarche, or diplomatic protest, over the incident, demanding its return.
14) http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/16/us/russia-us-ship-fly-by/
A) Russian jets buzzing American ships.
15) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/03/n-korea-faces-overwhelming-us-response-if-it-uses-nuclear-arms-mattis
A) War against NK, NK threatening missile launch.
B) Defense Secretary Mattis warned North Korea it would face an “effective and overwhelming” response from the US if it used nuclear weapons.
16) https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pentagon-says-iranian-vessels-harass-navy-ship-as-iran-tests-missile-defense-system/2017/03/06/454f7d3e-02ba-11e7-b9fa-ed727b644a0b_story.html?utm_term=.c86e2c7c6a5b
A) "Swift-moving Iranian vessels came dangerously close to a U.S. Navy surveillance ship in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, U.S. officials said Monday.
"The apparent harassment of the USS Invincible on two occasions, on Thursday and Saturday, came amid Iranian state media reports that Iran had tested its newly acquired S-300 missile air defense system that is designed to intercept incoming missiles."
B) "Iran fired a medium-range ballistic missile last month, apparent violating a U.N. Security Council Resolution. The administration responded with its first economic sanctions, when it placed 13 people and 12 businesses on a list that prohibits Americans from dealing with them.
C) "The February test led President Trump to tweet, 'Iran is playing with fire — they don’t appreciate how ‘kind’ President Obama was to them. Not me!'”
17) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/12/20/china-returns-american-drone-navy/95643520/
1) China returns underwater drone it seized in South China Sea.
2) "The incident -- the first of its kind in recent memory -- took place on Dec. 15 [2016]"
3) Drone was conducting operations in international waters.
4) "Trump took a call with Taiwan President Tsi Ing-wen — a first by a U.S. president or president-elect since President Jimmy Carter acknowledged in 1979 China's position that Taiwan is part of 'One China.'” - A U.S. president hasn't had "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan in 38 years. This really pissed China off.
18) http://thehill.com/policy/defense/317864-trump-makes-right-turn-on-iran
A) Trump comes swinging hard, new sanctions at Iran. Republicans love it, thinks Obama should have done what Trump's doing. Missile launch seen as a test by Iran to gauge Trump's reaction [Russian proxy] - "Trump’s quick response shows that America will not tolerate Iran’s provocative behavior."
19) https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-white-house-puts-iran-on-notice-after-missile-launch-1485979767
A) Trump White House puts Iran "on notice" after its recent missile tests. The threat of military response to Iran relatively explicit.
B) War with Iran.
20) https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/middleeast/donald-trump-yemen-commando-raid-questions.html?_r=0
A) Yemen raid.
21) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_relations#1979.E2.80.93present
A) 38 years since last official diplomatic contact with Taiwan.
22) http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/10/is-donald-trump-a-paper-tiger-to-beijing-xi-jinping-call-one-china-policy/
A) Trump calls into question "one-China policy." He wants to work a deal in some other area and then he may recognize the policy. Some analysts are calling Trump a "paper tiger" because of his unpredictability.
B) "The significance of this turnabout [Re: Taiwan] is surely profound, given that Chinese authorities call the policy 'the political foundation for China-US relations.'"
23) http://www.economist.com/node/21552212
** This source is very in-depth and covers the entire situation surrounding the Chinese issue **
1) China's military modernization causing alarm.
2) Mentions China's increasing military spending.
3) Anti-Access/Area Denial discussed.
4) "China is investing heavily in 'asymmetric capabilities' designed to blunt America's once-overwhelming capacity to project power in the region."
5) Ship killing missiles.
6) Talks about China's probable strategy and what it could do.
7) Japan, South Korea, India and even Australia spending more on their defense budgets, especially their navies.
8) Anything else you could imagine as it pertains to this op-ed.
24) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Carl_Vinson
25) http://time.com/4620129/pentagon-north-korea-icmb-ballistic-missile-threat/
A) NK test for Trump.
26) http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2017/0307/Amid-rising-tensions-Iran-tests-Russian-built-missile-system
A) Iran does another round of ballistic missile tests.
27) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis#U.S._military_response
A) 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis
B) "The U.S. government responded by staging the biggest display of American military might in Asia since the Vietnam War. President Clinton ordered additional ships into the region in March 1996. Two aircraft carrier battle groups, Carrier Group Seven centered on USS Nimitz, and Carrier Group Five centered on USS Independence, were present in the region. The Nimitz and her battle group sailed through the Taiwan Strait, while the Independence did not. The crisis forced the Chinese leadership to acknowledge its inability to stop U.S. forces from coming to Taiwan's assistance."
28) http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/29/us-china-war-increasingly-a-reality-chinese-army-official-says.html
A) "US-China war increasingly a 'reality,' Chinese army official says."
B) "Liu Guoshun, a member of the national defense mobilization unit of China's Central Military Commission, wrote on Jan. 20: 'A war within the president's term', 'war breaking out tonight' are not just slogans, but the reality,' Liu said in the Chinese commentary piece."