US politics, the next 10 years

Or, the nature always wins.

§1 the state of the state 

through the Trump's presidency, most of the political insiders maintained a "go along to get along" posture, hiding behind the "virtue" of bipartisanship.

the current heated discourse is designed to flush out people who refuse to maintain a "go along to get along" posture, as they appear to be a threat to the system. some loud posturing in the media aside, the system will let Trump and his faction be just fine.

§2 the clear path

nothing big will change structurally. the current tensions have mostly economic underpinning, and re-opening the economy (implied in Biden's campaign messaging) will solve most of the tensions.

the left will continue expanding voter base by importing new voters. the right will continue expanding voter base by shifting policies to the left.

election fixing will be relegated back to the primaries, as it's been through much of the US history. you'll be getting a choice of two very similar candidates again. the two major parties will continue trading ~1% electoral wins (presidency) and 10 ... 20 seat wins (congress).

the gradual decline will continue. specifically, the gradual *decline of productivity* and *the gradual accumulation of the economic deadwood* will continue.

the net worth of people will continue to decline in relevance and power; the socio-political capital will continue to grow in relevance and power. the chattering class is at present becoming the main taxman - and that tax rate is uncapped.

the values of freedom and order will continue to backslide, with the value of equality being touted and flaunted and slowly, gradually advancing. i don't expect changes to the US constitution, just a decade or two of terrible interpretations.

§3 the unclear path

the "250 years old time horizon" narrative is bunk. as comms grew faster, human longevity increased, and age of childbearing rose, the 250 years is much different on civilizational scale now that it was at historically. the historical examples are cherry-picked.

possible major shocks to the system: a major country trying to force a territorial conflict. China is a likely opponent, possibly in concert with EU. ironically enough a major conflict or military stare-down would have the effect of rejuvenating US.

possible major shocks to the system: a legislative overhaul trouncing media's power to swing endless accusations. imagine how much different politics would be if accusations of "muh far right" or "muh white supremacist" etc., were judicially treated with the same seriousness as other accusations. ironically enough this could come about through increase in citizen journalism - which the media would continue to perceive as ever growing threat to themselves, and lobby for a legislative solution.

expected major shock to the system: another populist president, coming from the next generation - from people who are 25 to 35 years old today. this time will be different: people will be better prepared to step up as leaders. people will be better prepared to ally with sympathetic elites.

§4 the alliances

the alliance of Freedom and Order people will largely go on, with a minority of Order people defecting to the Equality camp. this is largely based on the framework of US constitution, and on tacit acknowledgement of high economic productivity.

here's the hard part: we have to re-discover the value of *social darwinism* in the tribe. right now, the tribe goes with min/max strategy of either full unity or complete ejection & disavowal. this is used and abused by external actors to knock down the strongest players in our team, and artificially prop weaker ones. instead turn to internal competition, to let the strongest players - and strategies - naturally raise to the top. when you see major faults in people, don't default to giving them a full pass; don't default to fully rejecting them either. let them work hard to maintain a positive balance.

a necessary and much welcome alliance will be one with disaffected elites. a big discovery to be made here: the rich people are not inherently evil. in particular people who got rich in normal capitalist ways are not inherently evil. they will happily trade with you to mutual benefit. propaganda to the contrary is socialist well poisoning.

expect a big shift in alliances coming with decentralization, localization of manufacturing that's becoming ever more realistic thanks to technical developments. the creatives & the artists will again belong more to the people; the big-brand advertising budgets will gradually subside.

§5 the dangerous words

upfront: support the people who stand up for freedom. imperfect as they may be, their work will be exceedingly important in the longer run.

there will be much hand-wringing about dangers of government deplatformings, arrests & criminal proceedings, weaponized state aparatus, even terror. bit of a "noble lie", as the danger will be insignificant to regular people; the only *immediate* danger to regular people will be from rowing crowds and from activists extracting tithe.

90% of the people will do just fine, if at ever decreasing wealth and life comfort. the crackdowns will fall on the ones most ardent about Freedom and about Order; on people who made personal enemies - that includes various leftists that don't like toeing the main party line; and on a couple genuinely unlucky guys.

the people hand-wringing about loss of freedom will sound far-fetched, almost delusional. people will ask, "why doom and gloom when i'm doing just fine?". each such question is a key junction. have ready answers for it, and be sure to express support.

re-emphasizing: support the people who stand up for freedom. imperfect as they may be, their work will be exceedingly important in the longer run.

§6 that which last, wins

a natural high/low strategy: family and tribe. build to last and build to expand.

curate your follow list carefully and ruthlessly. connect your friends to good people and you'll soon discover the power of friendship.

expect a major populist wave in 30 years, on the backs of the next generation. at that point you'll be an elder, so prepare to act like one.

lastly, publish. publishing means passing on your folly and your wisdom: your answers and your questions.