Unnatural consensus on climate change

Without an understanding of natural climate, there’s no strong basis for predicting climate change

The world’s leaders are touting a victory over the 2015 agreement in Paris to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and so to prevent dangerous climate change.

A number of scientists have spoken out, saying that the Paris agreement is merely political theater and will do little to reduce global warming. Ironically, many scientists on both sides of the climate debate agree regarding the potential efficacy of the Paris agreement to alter the trajectory of climate change: i) scientists who view the proposed emissions reductions as insufficient to significantly alter the warming trajectory, and ii) scientists who regard climate variations to be relatively insensitive to carbon dioxide emissions and hence insensitive to such policies.

The 2013 Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made the dire projection that we can expect about 4 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the 21st century if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced. To assess the credibility of this prediction in terms of the actual trajectory of the 21st century climate, it is important to point out that the global climate models cannot predict future major volcanic eruptions or solar cycles, and do not adequately predict the long-term oscillations in the ocean.

What is the global warming hiatus, and why does it matter?

The credibility of the IPCC’s projections of 21st century climate has been called into question by a slowdown of the rate of warming in the early 21st century, relative to a more rapid rate of warming in the last quarter of the 20th century. This slowdown is referred to as the “global warming hiatus.”

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