Is It Youngkin Time?

This is now the third time I've attempted to come to grips with the whole Ron DeSantis thing and despite the fact there's a big old 'SAVE DRAFT' button at the bottom of this page, Minds apparently doesn't believe in drafts, so, if you, dear reader, saw a half-formed collection of meandering nonsense masquerading as a blogpost in the past twenty-four hours, you have my deepest apologies.

But, back to the question at hand: Is It Youngkin Time?

As with my musings about the internal politics of Iowa's State Democrats, it's worth noting that I'm not plugged into the GOP decoder ring. I don't know who's hot, who's not, and why people are voting or thinking of voting the way they're doing. I'm just a dude who reads a lot and has two degrees in Political Science (that look really pretty on my wall) so I know some things too. Probably just enough to be dangerous.

My general sense is that Ron DeSantis has not closed the deal- at least not yet. He entered the race with a full head of steam in May, hung around close to former President Trump in the polls, and then has gradually declined to anywhere between 10-17%, depending on what poll you read and if you even believe polls. 

On the one hand, this Tweet (and yes, they're always going to be 'Tweets' to me. Don't @ me, people) points out that Trump's PAC is spending millions on his (rapidly growing) legal bills while DeSantis' PAC is using their money for direct voter contact. And yet, on the other hand, this Tweet shows that DeSantis is burning through money at a pretty brisk clip as well.

And really, that sort of sums up how I feel about the guy so far. It's a study in contrasts and seems oddly inconsistent at times. I'm willing to grade candidates on a curve, however. If you've never run for national office before, I'm sure that's going to be an adjustment to make. You've got to ask people for money- all the time. You've got to go into states like Iowa and New Hampshire where people don't necessarily know who you are and expect you to shake their hands and actually make a personal connection with them- another strange adjustment, I'm sure, coming from a state like Florida.

But even accounting for that, you've got to admit- the guy comes across as a little weird sometimes. Now, I think the 'likability' thing and the 'would you have a beer with the candidate' are very much products of the punditry and I think to most regular voters they're largely ephemera- people want to know what any given candidate is going to do for them. They can be weird as all get out, as long as they have a plan to deliver. (Having a telegenic wife who's also a cancer survivor takes some of the rough edges off as well.)

Here's the thing, though: you can't out Trump the Trumpster himself and I feel like many of his problems are due to the fact that he's spent way too much time talking to Trump voters and not enough time talking to voters full stop. Even entertaining the notion of RFK Jr. as head of the CDC/FDA is wildly reckless and almost disqualifying, in my opinion, and Mike Pence righteously dunked on his ass for even floating the notion.

While the whole 'slavery let folks acquire useful job skills' thing managed to turn into 'not a disaster' for him- I wouldn't call it a win either. The right answer here was, "Yeah, the language doesn't sound good. We'll adjust it and by the way, you should go and read the whole thing." (Because the whole thing is... okay. And given the bent of DeSantis' ideology, 'okay' is a pretty decent outcome, considering.)

Was it blown out of proportion? Probably. Did GOP primary voters love watching him get prickly with reporters about it? Yes. But as a long-term, big-picture prospect: if the GOP is serious about this multi-ethnic working-class coalition they blather on about, they can't be having fights like this. At the very least, it annoyed black Florida Republicans and definitely rubbed them the wrong way. He spun his way out of it effectively enough, inviting the Vice President to a meeting to talk about concerns that she's probably not going to RSVP too, but the whole thing could have been avoided easily enough. 

If you're going to pick fights, you should make sure they matter. GOP voters may love you being combative with the mainstream media, but that only matters to them. Plus, at this point, it's like poking a dead possum on the side of the highway. It might be fun, but probably not for much longer.

Then there's the whole Gavin Newsom Debate thing. This might be the most baffling decision of all. You have a Republican Primary Debate, this month. You want to go debate the governor of California who is not running for President? (And honestly, even if he was, probably wouldn't be the nominee.) Seems like a horrible idea to me with more downside for DeSantis than upside for him. On the one hand, yes, there are two very distinct governing philosophies here and I think it's okay to debate them and might even be a good thing for the country to talk about. Conservative caricatures of California will be widely brought up, I'm sure, but a picture of a Flailing Florida could be painted as well. (See: homeowner's insurance or lack thereof and a teacher shortage.)

Despite the baffling decisions, the guy does have some game. This answer: is really, really good. This one isn't half-bad either and his whole declaration of economic independence should have been the centerpiece of his campaign from the start. When he talks about policy and what he wants to do for the country and not culture war bullshit it works a lot better. 

So, do I think it's Youngkin Time? Not yet. The hour is getting late, however, so Youngkin's repeated statements that he's focusing on statewide elections are getting more and more believable. But, if DeSantis really does that Newsom Debate and flubs that, and if he doesn't have at minimum, a really solid night in the first GOP debate, it might be.