Drawing Parallels Between the Three Kingdom Period and Three Modern Day Superpowers: China, Russia, and the US
Just tired of catching up on reading for school, so I decided I'll do some fun writing instead of writing notes. I'll just probably write whatever comes to mind tonight. I will be getting back into my previous project on here(my study of the Holy Qur'an), just need some time to free up in between everything. Plus I gotta go back and reread and listen to all my notes and reread the scripture as well to reinvigorate my memory as to where I left off and what I had learned. Stuffed my brain with all this law stuff, the theology was kinda put to the wayside for now.
Anyway, I suppose the first thing that comes to mind is this whole debacle with Ukraine being invaded by Russia. My thoughts on it are the following:
We keep focusing our attention to Russia for some absurd reason when we have a much larger threat, China, who will very likely invade Taiwan. If Taiwan is lost, we are doomed, or at the very least our way of life is doomed. The chip shortage, will become a chip extinction. China will essentially own all chip manufacturing, which means we won't have the material or ability to manufacture our "smart" devices. China will gain steam and thus bring an end to our "Three Kingdom" period. I love Three Kingdoms. I mention it a lot, but I do think history is repeating itself.
The United States is the Shu-Han. China is the Wei. Russia is the Wu. In history the Shu was considered the "righteous" successor to the Han as it was led by Liu Bei a scion of the imperial family. The Wei are the "usurpers" as Cao Cao took command of the emperor(puppeting him) similar to Dong Zhuo before him, consolidated power, and conquered the North of modern day China. The Shu had the West. The Wu on the other hand were strong warriors and military leaders who had conquered and consolidated the Southeast of China. These three great powers would interchange as to who was fighting who. The three powers understood if one got too powerful then the other two were at risk and so as long as they stood strong with one another in times of war, then they could survive.
The Wei, throughout the Three Kingdom period was considered the strongest of three. The Shu and the Wu teamed up often to hold back against the Wei. Until one day, there was a spat between the Wu and Shu and this alliance had broken down(their alliance would go on and off, but for the most part stayed on.) Shu for the longest time took an aggressive approach and attacked Wei on multiple occasions to retake the territory of the Han dynasty. They failed. The great strategist Zhuge Liang was succeeded by another not as great strategist, but competent successor Jiang Wei who took on these campaigns.
The only issue for these excellent strategists of Shu, was the inadequacy of leadership at home. After Liu Bei died, Liu Shan took over(his son) who Liu Bei desired not to succeed as he felt he was inadequate to rule, and rightfully so. Liu Shan did not trust the right people nor was he bright enough to see through the deceit his courtiers would give him. This would eventually cause not only the defeat of Jiang Wei, but a successful invasion from Wei upon the Shu, where inevitably Liu Shan surrendered. Wu's invasion of Wei in order to divert attention from Shu was unsuccessful as they were too late. Wu would be invaded much later and conquered by what would be then known as the Jin dynasty(a strategist known as Sima Yi who worked for Cao Cao, Cao Pi, and Cao Rui, eventually did a coup d'etat and took the kid emperor as hostage similar to Cao Cao did when he formed Wei.) Wei was plagued with young emperors who were ill and would die young, as well as other internal political strife.
Essentially Wei wins is the point after about a hundred years of fighting.
How does our three nations, Russia, US, and China relate? Easy. Russia is the Wu, US is the Shu, and China the Wei due to the following:
Russia has the ability to switch sides, which in Three Kingdoms the Wu did quite often. One moment they helped Liu Bei, another moment they helped Cao Cao kill Guan Yu (Liu Bei's oath brother). Wu is in it for their personal gain and only are seeking their own survival and so go where the wind goes. The US is like Shu as it has become a bastion of incompetence. We are weary of war and our leadership is weak and feeble. Our resources are spread thin, as shortages become more prevalent in our every day lives.
The Wei on the other hand grow stronger as they wait and play the long game. That's what China has done. Cao Cao wanted to conquer Shu and Wu in his lifetime, but he resigned himself knowing that it was impossible as he needed to allow his people to flourish and prosper(grain and population growth) to provide for the war effort. China has the population. China is still expanding its capabilities. We are nearing the point of where war is inevitable. Our first incursion against China: Korean War. Our second incursion: Vietnam War. We lost both. In both these cases China was a belligerent on the opposition's side. These were proxy wars for us, but for China, it was on what it considers to be its border. We failed like Zhuge Liang did against Sima Yi.
What happens next in history after failed campaigns is a period of quiet. It's the healing period. Where the loser licks their wounds and the aggressed recovers from the damage sustained. We cannot forget our other incursions: Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, etc. We are a tired nation. We have exhausted ourselves. We now are making enemies of someone who would be interested in working with us to maintain the status quo against China, and that is Russia. The Shu and Wu's bond is slowly fracturing. China will capitalize the moment it does, just like Wei did. When the Wu killed Guan Yu, Liu Bei against the advice of Zhuge Liang went and invaded Wu, losing. This invasion will be Ukraine. We start this proxy war, we will be destined to lose and that leaves us open for China to swoop.
This isn't to state you shouldn't defend Ukraine against Russian aggression. It's more to state don't forget about the tiger when you are playing with the bear. China is gaining ground in Africa. Through trade deals and the like it has expanded its influence around the globe economically. It weakens our position and now we're dealt with the final blow, incompetence.
The only reason Wu lasted so long was its competent leadership, its strength in its warriors, and its strategists. The Wu, however, could not survive on its own. It needed the Shu. The Wei knew this well. They were fortunate that the Shu's leadership was weak and incompetent because it allowed them an easy opening taking away Wu's lifeline. This eventually led to Wu's demise too. Russia will probably not invade Ukraine unless they see no other option. If they think that our position is too weak to assist in a war against China, then Russia will do one thing that any sane person would do.
Run. Run and grab as much as you can before its all gone. Russia will go for Europe, and I mean all of it. They can't expand Eastward due to China, but they can expand Westward. That's the direction they'll head, West and South. They will consolidate as much power as they can while China busies itself with us. Russia's best chance is to pray that we wipe each other off the board, because if one wins, then they'll come for the other, but twice as strong.
I think this scenario is highly unlikely as it is the US and Russia feuding, which means that China gets to enjoy the fireworks similar to Cao Cao enjoying the Shu invasion of Wu. China will sit back and consolidate its power for the time being, perhaps an invasion of Taiwan...
But I guess only time will tell what happens between our version of the Three Kingdoms.